- Brady Johnson
- March 7, 2024
- 10:58 am
- 7 comments
In this article, we explore the concept of the "end of the bourbon boom."
- Is bourbon really on its way out the door?
- Is something going to replace it?
Let's talk about it.
Do you hear, what I hear?
Over the last year, I've had many people ask me, "Is the "bourbon boom" over? This question has arisen even more frequently, within the last couple of months, and for good reason.
- On January 14th, Brown-Foreman announced it was cutting its global workforce by 12% and the closure of it on-site cooperage.
- On October 31, 2024, MGP announced, in part:
"... In response to the softening American whiskey category trends and elevated industry-wide barrel inventories, in 2025 we plan to further lower our net aging whiskey put away, scale down our whiskey production, and optimize our cost structure to mitigate lower production volumes."
These announcements, taken at face value and on their own, could cause whiskey entusiasts to question bourbon's fate...and they are. However, not everyone is cutting production, and no one is shutting the doors, so let's not get ahead of ourselves, okay?
Buffalo Trace Distillery has its foot on the gas and is pressing on with its $1.2B expansion project that began in 2016. Additionally, while neither Buffalo Trace or it's parent company disclose financial details and quarterly earnings, Sazerac seems to be very healthy and continuing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in acquisitions. Sazerac, just this month, purchased Svedka Vodka and added the brand to their portfolio. (No. Vodka is not the "next thing")
Due For Correction
So why the downturn? Well, in part, it's no different than the downturn in just about everything right now. Travel/leisure is down. The restaurant industry is down. Auto purchases are down, etc. As Americans continue to tighten their wallets, everything is down.
But the bourbon market is due for a correction, and frankly, has been, for years. Distilleries large and small, have gotten dollar signs in their eyes over the last decade, and even suggested retail prices, have been getting ridiculous (Kentucky Owl, Wild Turkey, etc).
But here's the thing...tactics that worked 10 years ago, simply don't fly anymore. The average Bourbon enthusiast is far more whiskey wise, and has a much more educated palate than the average whiskey drinker of the early-mid 2000's.
So what am I saying?
I'm saying that in 2025, slapping a $300 price tag on sourced 7-10 year old whiskey, doesn't cut it anymore. I'm saying that putting below average brown water, in a crystal decanter and bedazzling the hell out of it, doesn't cut it anymore. Nor does putting yet another middle of the road bourbon, in yet another Port or Sherry cask, and asking top dollar. Bourbon enthusiasts are over the gimmicks and there is a large market share of "gimmick" whiskey. Fortunately, however, that whiskey will be the first on the chopping block.
This correction is needed. More distilleries are going to have to abandon their "because we can" pricing model, and start focusing more than ever on the quality of the bourbon in the bottle, if they want their product to sell in the now hyper-educated, gimmick-weary market. (Solo-Stove toasted? Really??)
This shift in consumer behavior has been noted, and is precisely why you are seeing giants like MGP cut production, and shift their focus to being a more premium brand. They know where the market is headed.
The Hunt
To most enthusiasts, there is no secret in what lies ahead. Yes, the market is about to become more saturated with bourbons that you used to wait in line for, and for a while, many still will. But, when the fruit of Buffalo Trace Distilleries labor begins hitting shelves as these "expansion barrels" come of age... the "hunt" for things like Blanton's, Weller Antique, Eagle Rare, and Colonel E.H Taylor Small Batch will probably become much less difficult, for those who enjoy those labels.
So will the hunt be over once everyone can find their regular supply of oil rubbed bronze horse toppers? No.
The fact is, even if bottles like Weller Full Proof and E.H Taylor Barrel Proof were to become more accessible, (dare I say...maybe even in-stores, regularly...) Bourbon is not going to simply lose its allure.
Enthusiasts are simply going to start aiming at higher allocations, setting their sights on even harder-to-get releases, and hunt those bottles more fervently after their bunkers of the lower allocations, are full. There will always be a bourbon to chase, and we are a long ways away from ever seeing BTAC, Pappy Van Winkle, Parkers Heritage, or King of Kentucky, sitting on store shelves.
Availability of Lower Allocations- The Perfect Welcome Gift for Newcomers
Bourbon becoming more accessible, is not going to kill bourbon, it is actually likely to help it grow. Many whiskey drinkers won't chase even the lower allocations, because they can't be bothered.
Lower allocations becoming more available, is likely going to cause more newbies to catch the bug, and start hunting those higher allocations, as their palates develop.
Greater Than The Sum
Bourbon is bigger than a spirit. It won't just fade away. Bourbon, unlike any other distilled spirit, has fostered a massive sense of community among enthusiasts whose passion may only even come close to being rivaled, by the passion of wine enthusiasts. Like bourbon, wine isn't going anywhere, either. It is a cultural staple, that is here to stay.
When is the last time you heard of a vodka bottle share party? What about tequila? The truth is, bourbon is built different.. and whiskey in general is the most nuanced and complex distilled spirit, by far. Every time you think you have experienced all there is to experience with whiskey...something happens. Someone throws it in an Amburana or Spanish brandy cask. Someone puts out a standard offering, at a hazmat proof. Someone distills it with acorns or something...the point is...good, bad, or indifferent..it's always entertaining and it is ever changing, while also remaining the same at its core. Just like the passion of the enthusiasts it draws.
As the landscape of bourbon changes over the years, BRBNFNDR is here to help you find your ever-changing, hard to get bottles. We are also here to strengthen and give back to the bourbon community! If you're looking for a service that can notify you as soon as a bottle you are searching for posts online, and gives you the opportunity to participate in barrel pick trips, bourbon hunting trips, and bottle giveaways, completely free....then BRBNFNDR.com is the place for you to be! Start a free trial today and join us on this journey! We look forward to welcoming you into the fold!
-Brady Johnson
COO/CMO, BRBNFNDR
© FNDR Technologies LLC. All Rights Reserved | 2025
© FNDR Technologies LLC
All Rights Reserved | 2025
and then
7 Replies to “Is Bourbon, Bust?”
Very well written
This is the best article on the subject I have read to date. Very nice job!!!!
I had wondered if the highly sought after allocated stuff would see a shrink in demand. Glad you addressed that too.
Like the comparison to bourbon and wine enthusiasts pointing to the fact there will always be a market for bourbon. Only thing that is guaranteed is that over time that market will change. Looking forward to what the next ten years will bring on my bourbon journey
Great read! Keep this content coming!
Although bourbon demand may be dropping in general, I don’t see that availability of allocated bourbon changing. I still can’t get Elijah Craig Toasted or Woodford Double Double or the Weller variants on a regular basis….or even at all. Until these items become “shelter”, at least part of the bourbon sales should be constant.
That was probably one of the best articles I’ve read in a while. As nuanced as bourbon itself. Thank you for sharing.